Tonight, I noticed a post that specified how many billions of dollars Covid had saved the UK pension fund through Excess Mortality in the groups that would otherwise be in receipt of it.
Thinking on NZ, and how StatsNZ provides us with a handy way to calculate Excess Mortality via Weekly Mortality numbers stretching back years. Because I think the OWiD version where they compare to the fixed window of 2015-2019, I use a rolling 5-year average. In their version, comparing high Mortality in, say, August of 2024 with the same period in 2015-2019 would show a higher value than mine uses, as mine incorporates the average of all the 5 years prior to it, not a fixed window that is now a decade old.
Using the StatsNZ Provisional Weekly Deaths Spreadsheet, I just found the average death count for the weeks in the 5 years prior to each week, then subtracted the result from the current week’s death total. The result is the Excess Mortality for that week compared to the 5-years preceding it. (Before you say it: these numbers are to 1 significant figure, so the very long numbers after the decimal are not visible – hence that 1 in the last column.)
Then, we just add the numbers together and multiply by the value of the Pension. It’s $414.17 to $538.42 depending on if the person is living alone or with others, so I used the range. The data available runs to January 2025, and vaccination started in Feb 2021. I started in March 2021 – January 2025 as vaccination started in Feb 2021. It’s probably better to also look at 2020 in the calculation, that comes after the 2021-2025 figures below:
Using March 2021 – January 2025
For the 80+ cohort (Mar 2021 – Jan 2025): there were 7,328 excess deaths in the 80+ cohort, based on a rolling average. * $414.17 – $538.42 = between $3,035,037.76 and $3,945,541.76.
For 65-79 (Mar 2021 – Jan 2025): 3,899 excess deaths. * $414.17 – $538.42 – between $1,614,848.93 and $2,099,299.58.
Per Week: $4,649,886.59 – $6,044,841.34
Grand Total Per Year (based on EM for 2021-2025): $241,794,102.68 – $314,331,749.68 no longer being claimed in Superannuation.
Using March 2020 – January 2025:
For the 80+ cohort for 2020-2025: 7,294 excess deaths. (This cohort actually had negative EM in 2020. Fewer people in this cohort died in 2020 compared to the 5 years prior to 2020.) = $3,020,955.98 to $3,927,235.48.
For the 65-79 cohort for 2020-2025: 4,294 excess deaths. (This cohort experienced positive Excess Mortality overall in 2020.) $1,778,445.98 to $2,311,975.48.
Per Week: $4,799,401.96 to $6,239,210.96.
Grand Total Per Year (based on EM for 2020-2025): $249,568,901.92 to $324,438,969.92 no longer being claimed in Superannuation.
