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    We often hear “how many lives were saved”, how many Dollars were Saved (on pensions) in NZ over Covid?

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We often hear “how many lives were saved”, how many Dollars were Saved (on pensions) in NZ over Covid?

The answer may shock you.

SpiderCatNZ<span class="bp-verified-badge"></span> by SpiderCatNZ
July 9, 2025
in Covid
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Tonight, I noticed a post that specified how many billions of dollars Covid had saved the UK pension fund through Excess Mortality in the groups that would otherwise be in receipt of it.

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Thinking on NZ, and how StatsNZ provides us with a handy way to calculate Excess Mortality via Weekly Mortality numbers stretching back years.  Because I think the OWiD version where they compare to the fixed window of 2015-2019, I use a rolling 5-year average.  In their version, comparing high Mortality in, say, August of 2024 with the same period in 2015-2019 would show a higher value than mine uses, as mine incorporates the average of all the 5 years prior to it, not a fixed window that is now a decade old.

Excess Mortality v Covid Mortality
Covid Deaths v Excess Deaths

Using the StatsNZ Provisional Weekly Deaths Spreadsheet, I just found the average death count for the weeks in the 5 years prior to each week, then subtracted the result from the current week’s death total.  The result is the Excess Mortality for that week compared to the 5-years preceding it.  (Before you say it: these numbers are to 1 significant figure, so the very long numbers after the decimal are not visible – hence that 1 in the last column.)

Then, we just add the numbers together and multiply by the value of the Pension.  It’s $414.17 to $538.42 depending on if the person is living alone or with others, so I used the range.  The data available runs to January 2025, and vaccination started in Feb 2021.  I started in March 2021 – January 2025 as vaccination started in Feb 2021.  It’s probably better to also look at 2020 in the calculation, that comes after the 2021-2025 figures below:

Using March 2021 – January 2025

For the 80+ cohort (Mar 2021 – Jan 2025):  there were 7,328 excess deaths in the 80+ cohort, based on a rolling average. * $414.17 – $538.42 = between $3,035,037.76 and $3,945,541.76.

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For 65-79 (Mar 2021 – Jan 2025): 3,899 excess deaths. * $414.17 – $538.42 – between $1,614,848.93 and $2,099,299.58.

Per Week: $4,649,886.59 – $6,044,841.34

Grand Total Per Year (based on EM for 2021-2025): $241,794,102.68 – $314,331,749.68 no longer being claimed in Superannuation.

 

Using March 2020 – January 2025:

For the 80+ cohort for 2020-2025: 7,294 excess deaths.  (This cohort actually had negative EM in 2020. Fewer people in this cohort died in 2020 compared to the 5 years prior to 2020.) = $3,020,955.98 to $3,927,235.48.

For the 65-79 cohort for 2020-2025: 4,294 excess deaths. (This cohort experienced positive Excess Mortality overall in 2020.)  $1,778,445.98 to $2,311,975.48.

Per Week: $4,799,401.96 to $6,239,210.96.

Grand Total Per Year (based on EM for 2020-2025): $249,568,901.92 to $324,438,969.92 no longer being claimed in Superannuation.

 

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