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Unpacking Post-Vaccination Mortality Patterns in New Zealand (2020–2024)

SpiderCatNZ<span class="bp-verified-badge"></span> by SpiderCatNZ
June 26, 2025
in Covid
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Table of Contents

🧭 Overview

As New Zealand navigated the COVID-19 pandemic, over 11 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines were administered to a population of around 5 million. This analysis investigates the patterns of all-cause mortality in the weeks and months following vaccination, focusing on age-stratified data from the New Zealand Ministry of Health.

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The findings aim to contribute to a deeper understanding of how timing and demographic context might affect mortality statistics, without jumping to conclusions about causality.


📊 Key Findings

1. Sharp Mortality Peaks Shortly After Vaccination

Using anonymized data of deaths following the last recorded vaccine dose, we observe:

  • A distinct spike in deaths in the first 0–7 days following vaccination, across nearly all doses.
  • The spike is particularly noticeable after Doses 1 and 2, which had the highest number of recipients.
  • Doses 3 to 5 show persistent elevated death counts into the 8–30 and 31–90 day windows, especially among the elderly.

2. Mortality Concentrated in the 80+ Age Group

When filtering the data to include only people aged 30 and over:

  • The 80+ age group dominates short-term mortality following vaccination.
    • Over 600 deaths occurred within 0–7 days in this group alone.
    • Thousands more were recorded within the 30–180 day post-vaccination period.
  • This pattern is consistent with vaccination programs targeting frail and elderly individuals, often in aged-care facilities.

3. Younger Adults (30–64) Showed Relatively Low Mortality

  • In comparison, people aged 30–64 showed significantly fewer deaths post-vaccination.
    • Fewer than 100 deaths occurred within 0–7 days across all doses in this group.

4. Normalized Death Rates Confirm Real Differences

  • When deaths are adjusted for the size of the vaccinated population, Doses 1 and 2 still show the highest short-term death rates per 100,000 recipients.
  • Doses 3 to 5 remain elevated, but are more drawn out over time—again suggesting administration to populations with limited life expectancy.

5. Excess Mortality Trends Track with Booster Campaigns

  • By comparing weekly excess deaths (deaths above the normal baseline) with vaccine rollout data, we find:
    • Noticeable overlaps between the peak of vaccination waves and surges in excess deaths.
    • This alignment appears most clear during the third and fourth dose rollout phases.

🧠 Key Takeaways

  • Temporal proximity to vaccination does not necessarily imply causation, especially in elderly or terminally ill populations who were prioritized for early and repeated vaccination.
  • The clustering of deaths shortly after vaccination is most prominent in those already at high risk of mortality.
  • Monitoring and transparency of such data are essential to maintain trust and improve future public health interventions.

🔮 Next Steps

To build on these insights, we suggest:

  1. Normalize deaths per dose group by population age strata, improving accuracy in risk comparisons.
  2. Visualize heatmaps showing how mortality patterns evolve by age and time post-vaccination.
  3. Segment deaths by facility type, if data becomes available (e.g., aged-care vs. community).
  4. Adjust excess mortality estimates by subtracting direct COVID-19 deaths, revealing unexplained surpluses.
  5. Perform time-shifted statistical analysis (e.g., Granger causality) to better understand temporal patterns.

Some of these next steps can be found in the next article in this series: Statistical Relationships – Covid Vaccine Doses and Deaths in NZ from 2020 through early 2025

 

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