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A Rise in Uncertainty: Ill-Defined and Perinatal Infant Deaths in New Zealand

SpiderCatNZ<span class="bp-verified-badge"></span> by SpiderCatNZ
August 19, 2025
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A Rise in Uncertainty: Ill-Defined and Perinatal Infant Deaths in New Zealand

Overview

This article examines mortality classifications under ICD Chapter 18 (Ill-defined conditions) and Chapter 16 (Certain conditions originating in the perinatal period) for New Zealand children aged 0–4 between 2013 and 2022. The dataset shows that these deaths overwhelmingly occur in infants (age 0), with minimal contribution from ages 1–4.

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Key Findings – Chapter 18: Ill-defined Causes

Output image

 

YearAge 0Age 00–04Age 1–4 (= 00–04 − 0)
201324251
201414151
201519234
201620244
201729312
201826304
201939456
202029323
202139401
202248502
  • Infant deaths under Chapter 18 are entirely R95–R99 (unknown/unspecified causes) in every year (2013–2022).

  • The increase began by 2019 (39 deaths), dipped in 2020 (29), then rose again in 2021–2022 (39, 48).

  • Age 1–4 contributed only 1–6 deaths per year.

  • Thus, the “rise” in ill-defined causes was not a post-2020 phenomenon only; it was already evident by 2019 and is essentially confined to infants.

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Key Findings – Chapter 16: Perinatal Conditions

Output image

YearAge 0Age 00–04Age 1–4 (= 00–04 − 0)
20131521520
20141751761
20151231230
20161341340
20171511510
20181411421
20191351361
20201511521
20211801811
20221621642

Selected Age-0 subgroup series (deaths per year):

YearP05–P08 (Gestation/ Growth)P20–P29 (Resp/Cardio)P90–P96 (Other perinatal)P50–P61 (Haem/Haemato)P35–P39 (Infections)
20136439141512
20149131171712
20154431211012
2016562424910
2017713218158
20186821151213
2019672521105
20206819242015
20217518411323
20225125441619
  • P05–P08 (Gestation/fetal growth issues): Large spike in 2014 (91 deaths). The Ministry of Health has stated this was a “catch-up” year, reflecting previously unentered deaths being added into the registry. A second rise occurs in 2021 (75), but unlike 2014 it is not accompanied by an official note of data correction. In 2022, P05–P08 drops to 51.

  • P90–P96: Clear rise post-2020 (24 → 41 → 44).

  • P35–P39: Rise post-2020 (15 → 23 → 19).

  • P20–P29: Stable to declining until 2021, small increase in 2022 (25).

  • P50–P61: Fluctuating, not steadily increasing (peaked in 2020 at 20).

  • Again, virtually all perinatal deaths are in infants; Age 1–4 contributes at most 1–2 per year.

Population Context

Stats NZ age-0 population estimates show the 2021 cohort was modestly larger (61,060) than surrounding years (typically ~59,000–60,000). This does not explain the post-2020 rises in Chapter 16 subgroups such as P90–P96 and P35–P39.

Corrected Interpretation

  • Chapter 18: Infant ill-defined deaths (R95–R99) were already rising by 2019, not only after 2020.

  • Chapter 16: Certain perinatal subgroups (P90–P96, P35–P39) show real rises after 2020, but P05–P08’s 2014 spike is a documented catch-up artifact rather than a sudden mortality surge. Its 2021 increase does not carry the same administrative explanation.

  • These shifts remain almost entirely confined to infants (age 0).


Data Source: Ministry of Health NZ, mortality_Chapt_Subgrp.txt (2013–2022).

Were More Babies Born?

To test whether these increases might simply reflect a growing infant population, we examined annual average birth cohort sizes (proxied by age 0 population):

YearAverage Age 0 Population
201359,858
201458,370 ⬇️
201559,018
201659,718
201759,958
201859,408
201959,808
202059,238
202161,060 ⬆️
202259,855

The 2021 birth cohort was modestly larger than surrounding years, but not enough to explain the sharp post-2020 increases in infant deaths. 2020 and 2022 were typical and align with pre-pandemic norms.

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