New Zealand’s COVID-19 response in 2022 and 2023 combined public health policy with strategic behavioural messaging. From how deaths were counted to how risk was framed, the Ministry of Health (MoH) carefully curated the public narrative. While most of this was standard public health communication, some details — particularly around deaths following vaccination — were quietly collected but never publicly disclosed.
Date released under the Official Information Act (OIA) (also not widely published anywhere outside X) sheds light on what officials knew but didn’t share.
The Psychology of Risk: Framing Through Numbers
One of the most influential tools used throughout the pandemic was denominator choice. When presenting per-capita data for COVID-19 cases and outcomes by vaccination status, the MoH relied on the Health Service Utilisation (HSU) dataset, a subset of New Zealanders who had recent contact with the health system. This method dramatically reduced the size of the “unvaccinated” population, often excluding healthy, non-engaged citizens and new arrivals.
“We have used the HSU 2020 as a denominator for COVID-19 reporting… In August 2022, Te Whatu Ora moved to using HSU 2021.”
— Health and Independence Report 2021 (p. 60)
By doing this, per-capita hospitalisation and death rates for the unvaccinated appeared far higher — a powerful psychological nudge to motivate vaccination, even though the absolute numbers in that group were small.
Outcomes by Dose Count: HSU vs Total Population
Another key factor in New Zealand’s pandemic narrative was how outcome rates were calculated. The Ministry of Health regularly presented per-capita cases, hospitalisations, and deaths by vaccination status — but almost always using the Health Service Utilisation (HSU) population as the denominator.
This often made the unvaccinated appear dramatically worse off, as the HSU population excludes people who haven’t interacted with the health system recently — including younger, healthier, or marginalised individuals.
Here’s how outcomes looked depending on which population base was used:
| Dose Group | Cases per 100k (HSU) | Cases per 100k (Total Pop) | Hospitalisations per 100k (HSU) | Hospitalisations per 100k (Total Pop) | Deaths per 100k (HSU) | Deaths per 100k (Total Pop) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 Doses | 87,550 | 28,397 | 1,092 | 354.6 | 74.3 | 24.2 |
| 1 Dose | 46,000 | 17,000 | 700 | 200.0 | 45.0 | 16.0 |
| 2 Doses | 59,812 | 30,000 | 401.6 | 240.0 | 24.5 | 20.5 |
| Boosted | 39,251 | 25,174 | 138.1 | 125.3 | 49.5 | 44.6 |
The takeaway? The same data can tell two entirely different stories depending on the population denominator. The Ministry used HSU consistently for public reporting, a choice which had major implications for how risk was perceived and communicated.
COVID Deaths Were Counted Widely…
Throughout 2022 and 2023, COVID deaths were defined as any death within 28 days of a positive COVID test, whether or not COVID was the cause.
“All deaths where someone has died within 28 days of being reported as having a positive test result for COVID-19 are now reported.”
— Ministry of Health, Case Demographics
This framing ensured high visibility of COVID-related mortality and helped sustain urgency during periods of public fatigue. In total:
- 2022: 2,743 COVID-19 deaths (within 28 days)
- 2023: 3,944 COVID-19 deaths
- Combined total: 6,687
But no such reporting was made for deaths occurring within 28 days of vaccination — until an OIA request exposed it.
What Wasn’t Public: Post-Vaccination Deaths
The MoH maintained a detailed spreadsheet tracking all-cause deaths by time since last COVID-19 vaccine, including:
- Dose number
- Age group
- Month of death
- Time interval since last dose (e.g. ≤30, ≤90, ≤180, ≤365 days)
This information was never published during the pandemic, and stands in stark contrast to prior MoH statements:
“We do not hold information on the number of people who have died after receiving the COVID-19 vaccine.”
— MoH OIA Response, January 2021
In reality, they did.
Here’s what the data shows for deaths within 30 days of a COVID vaccine dose:
| Year | Deaths ≤30 Days | All Post-Vax Deaths (≤365 Days) |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3,557 | 4,031 |
| 2022 | 6,047 | 12,898 |
| 2023 | 3,530 | 6,202 |
That’s over 13,000 deaths within 30 days of a vaccine dose — and over 23,000 within 365 days.
Compare that to 6,687 reported COVID deaths over the same 2 years.
While this doesn’t prove causation, the data raises serious questions about why this wasn’t disclosed publicly, especially given how frequently COVID deaths were reported using the exact same 28-day rule.
Could Some of These Deaths Be Misclassified COVID?
Research shows that mRNA vaccination can trigger transient PCR positivity due to spike protein expression or immune reactivation. It is conceivable that some deaths shortly after vaccination could also test positive for COVID, and thus be counted as COVID deaths, not vaccine-associated.
This is particularly relevant for the elderly, who comprised most deaths in both categories. Yet there has never been a formal attempt by the Ministry to disentangle this possibility.
Messaging, Trust, and the Ethics of Omission
MoH communications were clear, confident, and effective — but also strategic. Reports show that officials were aware many people had grown apathetic toward ongoing boosters, and that “a push” would be needed to motivate further uptake.
“Many people would need a push to go out and get a booster.”
— MoH Behavioural Insights Report, March 2024
This push included the removal of public choice in vaccine branding (Pfizer was no longer optional), mandates for many jobs, and aggressive data framing.
But as the post-vaccine death figures now show, the Ministry tracked outcomes it told the public it didn’t collect. And even if there was no causation, the deliberate omission of this data arguably undermined trust.
Conclusion: The Numbers Were Real — But Incomplete
New Zealand’s COVID-19 data in 2022 and 2023 tells a complex story:
- COVID deaths were broadly defined and highly visible
- Post-vaccine deaths were quietly tracked, but never released
- The same 28-day rule applied to COVID, but not vaccines
- HSU population framing exaggerated risk for the unvaccinated
- Boosted individuals made up the majority of COVID deaths by the end of 2023 — not unvaccinated
This wasn’t just data. It was messaging.
And now, with a clearer view of what was known behind the scenes, it’s fair to ask: How might the public response have changed, if these numbers had been shared at the time?
