The Fifth Wave of Covid in NZ – Weeks 1-14 – Trends and Total/Per-Capita Cases/Hospitalisations/Deaths by Vaccination Status

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The fifth wave of Covid in NZ was began 6 November 2023, week 1 was 13 November 2023, according to the people who call it that.

These are the changes across Cases, Hospitalisations, and Deaths by Vaccination Status from the values as at 6 November 2023, as per Te Whatu Ora, through to this week, Week 14.


NZ New Reported Cases Trend over Time

Npw, I’m not a very highly-paid university modeler like David Hood with his ASMR charts that are theoretical models that are used to make thousands of extra dead people look like “actually, no, FEWER people have died than would have, had my model been accurate “, or Shaun “80,000 WILL DIE OF COVID” Hendy, but it looks to me like this wave is on the way out. It could be the averaging over weeks 8 and 9 that are doing that, but it looks like all those thousands of infected Boosted people are slowly stopping the infecting of each other.


NZ Hospitalisations for Covid Trend over Time

ICU Admissions for Covid

Deaths With Covid

NZ Deaths with Covid by Vaccination Status Trend over Time

The total numbers and per-capita rate for the Boosted are increasing over time.

The total numbers and per-capita rate for the Not Fully Vaccinated are decreasing over time.

Why is the under-12 group missing from the per-capita in Cases/Hospitalisations and ICU but not mentioned in Deaths, Spidey?

Because the under-12 group has their vaccination status withheld, I can’t present their per-capita rate.

So, I can’t use them in the 2 or 1-dose cohort sizes, or the 0-dose for the Case/Hospitalisations/ICU per-capita calculations. Deaths is not split out, so it uses the Total Population figure, and the 1 and 2 doses for paeds are included for those cohorts.

For Cases/Hospital/ICU, In order to not artificially raise the 0-dose cohort’s size, pushing down its rate per-capita (and similarly with 1 and 2, but Booster has never been affected), these stats per-capita numbers have to be based on total population MINUS all people up to 14, 645,000 removed from the calculation. Deaths uses the total one.

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