NZ Covid Vaccines Administered v Excess Mortality and Covid Deaths – January 2020 – October 2023

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I was looking through my files from last year and managed to find a copy of the last HSU spreadsheet.

That’s the spreadsheet that used to live on the Vaccine Data page until it was removed, it gives us detail on vaccine doses administered by day. I converted these into weekly, to match with the OECD data’s Mortality Tool, and smushed them together on a chart.

The results are below, Mortality Tool up to late October 2023 (the deaths have to be confirmed, so there is a lag in reporting to OECD), the vaccine data is only up to May 2023, I’m manually updating the spreadsheet and will update when it’s complete.

Firstly, here’s New Zealand’s Total All-Cause Mortality trend.

NZ All-Cause Mortality over Time

NZ Vaccine Rollout – HSU / Vaccine Data Page

Data for this comes via HSU Spreadsheet and the MoH Vaccine Data Page.

NZ Covid Mortality vs All-Cause Mortality

This is our All-Cause Mortality plotted against our Covid Mortality. In 2002, our Covid peak death time was between week 10 (37 deaths) and week 30 (56 deaths) of 2022, peaking in week 30 for 236 Covid deaths that week. A total of 2,030 from week 10 to week 30 of 2022.

All in all, I can’t really see a massive impact on our ACM outside that 20-week period in 2022 with the highest Covid mortality. There’s certainly many weeks there since 2021 where it increases WITHOUT any Covid Mortality to speak of, if at all.

NZ Covid Mortality vs Excess Mortality

This chart shows New Zealand’s Covid Mortality as above, and our Excess Mortality in green. I use the “compared to average” version of Excess Mortality that the OECD tool uses.

Essentially, it’s “what is the difference between how many people died this week, and how many died in the 5 years from 2015-2019?” If 100 more people died this week, green line is at 100. If 300 fewer died this week, it’s at -300.

It’s not “Age Standardised Mortality Rates”, or ASMR, which are models based on theoretical scenarios. It’s actual piles of dead people being compared to the average pile of dead people from 2015-2019,

We can see NZ’s Excess Mortality goes negative through weeks 21-40 2020, then return to positive in October 2020, for a total of -71.3 excess deaths in 2020. Average of 1.35 fewer deaths per week.

For 47 weeks of 2021, more people died than the average of the 5 years to 2020. 5 weeks saw negative EM, and the total for the year was 2112 excess deaths in 2021. Average of 40.6 extra deaths per week.

Every week of 2022 had excess mortality. The total for the year was 5,787 excess deaths in 2022. Average of 111 extra deaths per week.

2023 Excess Mortality is still being processed, but we have up to Week 44, October 30 2023. 3,960 excess deaths in 2023. Average of 90 extra deaths per week.

That’s a total of 11,788 extra dead people since 2020 if we compare to pre-Covid death numbers. Obviously, if we use ASMR to model it, we actually had fewer people die than expected. But there’s still a pile of bodies around 11% larger than it would have been, had we stayed at average rates.

If we then divide by the number of doses administered according to MoH on 21 October 2023 (12,679,266), we get 0.929 extra deaths per 1,000 doses administered,

NZ Covid Vaccinations by Dose type vs Excess Mortality

This chart shows all the Vaccine doses administered, by Dose number, up to May 2023.

We can see that EM returned to positive after October 2020, but then was actually trending down towards zero again.

That sharp dip at 11 September in 2021 is really only 41 fewer than Average. Then from there, its UP UP UP to 238.6 more people dead than average

in August 2022. It’s had a brief drop below 0 in 2023 but otherwise positive.

NZ Covid Vaccinations by Dose type vs Excess Mortality and Covid Mortality

And here’s all of it together (sans All-Cause because that would break it).

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