If MoH/TWO’s Own Data from 2022 Shows This, Why Are We Still Boosting?

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I decided it was time to do the eye-bleeding task of pulling every single day’s vaccination status pages from Wayback Machine, to have a look at how the cohorts were doing at the point the data became available – 13 February 2022.

We’d been Boosting for about 2.5 months at that point.

I then plugged that day’s Case Demographics data into the spreadsheet, found the StatsNZ infoshare table for the total population and the 5-12 cohorts (458,130: 5: 63,270, 6: 63,640, 7: 64,400, 8: 64,660, 9: 67,030. 10: 67,030, 11: 68,100 )and got the per-capita values.

As there is no death data until 22 March, the first couple of months are just the Case/ICU/Hospital data. That is split by dose (0/1/2/3) and the number of under-12s, whose vaccination status is suppressed for the raw totals. The per-capita rates omit the under-12s as we do not know their vaccination status, and their numbers are removed from the 0/1/2 cohort totals. The 0-dose cohort population for these is “Total Population (below) – under 12 population (458,130) – total first doses administered.

For the Deaths per-capita calculation, the under-12s are included in all cohorts and the 0-dose is calculated by Total Population – 1st Doses administered (paediatric + adult dose totals).

March: 5,114,900, June: 5,117,100, September: 5,131,200.

Spoiler, Boosted starts off best. That does not last long.

Cases

13 February 2022 – Day One of Data Availability

Overall, the Fully Vaccinated are top of total reported cases, with Unvaccinated second. 1-dose third by vax status, under-12 third technically.

Because the 1-dose cohort (with the under-12s removed) at this point is 59,119 people at this point (it actually drops to about 53, 248 by 2024, but that’s another story for another night), its per-capita with the third highest raw total is enormous compared to all other cohorts. Unvaccinated are second, then Fully-Vaccinated. That’s what I’d expect to see for an effective vaccine. Fully-vaccinated? Fewer per-capita cases! Yay!

13 February – March 2022

Doesn’t look too bad to be Boosted here. Lowest overall Cases per-capita, and new Cases per-capita. Second behind Fully-Vaccinated overall raw and new raw cases though. So, overall at this point? Looking Effective! Boosted lowest per-capita, then Fully Vaccinated, then Unvaccinated.

Right. I’ll stop there. There’s absolutely no way this is going to change going forward. It’s definitely effective. Time to play video games.

Actually.

It’s the Boosted’s first time showing, so let’s see how they go in the March – April period next up.

March 2 – April 1 2022

A bit of a jump for all the cohorts overall, with 2-dose top, 3-dose second, and 0-dose third. Per-Capita, huh. It’s the Fully Vaccinated. Then the partially-vaccinated (they are always huge, such a small cohort), then the Boosted and the unvaccinated last. Weird. The Fully Vaccinated are worst off. And unvaccinated best? One more month.

2 April – 1 May 2022

2 May – 1 June 2022

June 2 – June 30 2022

Oh no. The Boosted are now, per-capita overall higher than the Unvaccinated, who are now coming last. Surely that will change. Otherwise, it might have been an idea at some point to address this.

As far as new cases go, Boosted are still just behind Unvaccinated.

July 1 – August 1 2022

2 August – 1 September 2022

The period of August 2022 was NZ’s peak Covid death period.

2 September – 2 October 2022

At this stage, MoH moved from daily updates to weekly. Vaccine data for these charts is 3 October, Case Demographics 2 October.

3 – 30 October 2022

1 November – 4 December 2022

Vaccine Data – 29 November, Case Demographics Data – 4 December 2022.

tl;dr – The Trend from 1 April – 1 December 2023

Between May 2 and June 1, the Boosted were recording the highest number of new cases per month per-capita. This never, ever reverses, not as at February 2024 as I write this.

It seems fairly clear to me, looking at only these datasets from 13 March 2022, to December 1 2023, that it’s far better to remain in the 0-dose group than move into any others, especially that Boosted one.

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