Covid in NZ – Comparing per-capita Methods – Spidey vs Shill – 27.03.2022

Share This:

Back in 2022, before I even started doing any of the stats, these were floating around Twitter, showing how badly the Unvaccinated were doing, Covid-wise. A handy tool for the pro-vax shills to nudge the reluctant.

They are made by John Hart, the cricket-farming failed Greens candidate. I initially thought they came from David Hood, I retract and apologise for that assumption.

But was it accurate? Or was it just another lie?

This one’s a bit blurry, but the right part of the footer has citation links to the same place I get my data, so I thought I’d grab the relevant pages from Wayback Machine and have a look to see what I come up with. It says it’s based on total population (5,013,525), StatsNZ have 5,114,900, so there’s a boost for the Unvaccinated there).

tl;dr

John Hart says: Deaths with Covid: NFV: 52.0% / 10 per 100,000. FV: 28.0/2.4 per 100,000. Boosted: 20.0% or 1 per 100,000. Boosted dying with Covid 10x that of NFV.

Spidey says: Deaths with Covid: NFV: 8.14 (total deaths since 2020) or 5.70 (excluding the 26 Not Vaccinated deaths prior to vaccine availability as per John Hart’s graph) per 100,000. FV: 5.3 per 100,000. Boosted: 2.56 per 100,000. NFV dying with Covid 3.18x (or 2.2x) that of Boosted. Quite a difference there.

Interestingly, this is about the point at which the Boosted start to take off, deaths-wise especially.

John Hart (@farmgeek)’s Version – March 27, 2022

Let’s go from left-to-right.

Vaccinations

296,000 people under 5, 364,000 Unvaccinated Eligible, 310,000 1-dose, 1.47M 2-dose, and 2.57M 3-dose. For a total of 5,010,000 people. (it’s almost like he’s counting those people who are 1 dosed AND 2 dosed. I get a much smaller number for 1 dose, because it’s just “first doses administered – second doses administered”. Looks the same with that 2-dose number.)

Cases: no per-capita values are given for these, just the percentage distribution. Under-12: 15.9%, 0: 4.8%, 1: 1.6%, 2: 44.6%, 3: 33.1%

Hospitalisations: as with Cases, Under-12: 8.4%, 0: 22.0%, 1: 5.5%, 2: 39.8%, 3: 24.3%

Deaths with Covid: NFV: 52.0% / 10 per 100,000. FV: 28.0/2.4 per 100,000. Boosted: 20.0% or 1 per 100,000.

I am very curious to know where he got those death figures from, as the deaths total for that day is not 100 as per his graphic. In fact, given we had more than 100 deaths prior to MoH providing us with any data on deaths by vaccination status (first day was 16 March 2022, where we had a total of 125 Deaths With Covid), I can’t begin to imagine where that comes from. Unless it’s percentage? But why? None of the others are.

Let’s have a look at the very first day. Excluding the 26 deaths prior to Vaccination availability, is that when it was Not Vaccinated die at 10x the rate of Boosted?

Okay, this is very interesting. The Boosted and Fully Vaccinated per-capita values for 16 March 2022 may as well match what John Hart is saying happened above. But he’s saying that was the case on the 27th of March 2022. Why would he do that?

Anyway, is it ten times the rate of the Boosted?

Boosted deaths = 25 / Boosted population = 2,528,179 * 100,000 = 0.99 deaths per 100,000 Boosted people.

NFV deaths = 39 / NFV population = 1,129,444 * 100,000 = 3.45 deaths per 100,000 Not Fully Vaccinated people.

3.45 / 0.99 = Not Fully Vaccinated had died at a rate 3.48x that of the Boosted. NOT 10x as David Hood’s graph states.

Spidey’s Version – March 21 – 27, 2022

I do not include the under-12s in my per-capita calculations for the Cases and Hospitalisation, as this causes the actual Vaccination Cohorts to be fudged by the inclusion of vaccinated 5-11s whose Case and Hospital admission are not included in the 1/2 dose numbers.

Vaccinations

390,630 people under 12, 698,860 Unvaccinated People aged 12 and over, 51,598 1-dose, 1,398,685 2-dose, and 2,575,127 3-dose. For a total of 5,114,900 people. As per StatsNZ.

Cases per 100,000 people: . 0: 4,114, 1: 18,819, 2: 19,197, 3: 7,819

Hospitalisations per 100,000 people: 0: 141.95, 1: 482.58, 2: 130.19, 3: 43.53

Deaths with Covid: NFV: 8.14 per 100,000 (or with the 26 pre-vaccination removed – 5.70 per 100,000). FV: 5.3 per 100,000. Boosted: 2.56 per 100,000.

Data and Resources

Wayback Machine Links

March 21, 2022:

https://web.archive.org/web/20220321083453/https://www.health.govt.nz/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data

https://web.archive.org/web/20220321050800/https://www.health.govt.nz/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-case-demographics

March 27, 2022:

https://web.archive.org/web/20220328134341/https://www.health.govt.nz/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data

https://web.archive.org/web/20220328124158/https://www.health.govt.nz/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-case-demographics

Population as at March 27, 2022

Vaccination Status Cohorts as at March 27, 2022

Share This: